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THE world had good reason to watch the US midterm elections with bated breath, because their outcome would not only determine the balance of power in Washington, but also shape the course of major international conflicts — particularly in the Middle East — and establish how much political bandwidth Presi­dent Donald Trump would retain to pursue his foreign policy during the final two years of his presidency. The verdict has been considerably harsher than many had anticipated, chiefly beca­use of the fallout of the Iran war. As the election outcome was influenced by an external issue, the implications will ac­c­ordingly be reflected more on the foreign policy front. For foreign capitals, the significance of the result lies less in the change of congressional control itself but what it means for Trump’s ability, and willingness, to use American power abroad. A midterm defeat does not automatically diminish presidential authority over foreign affairs and military operations. Trump, therefore, retains considerable discretion over military operations and negotiations, as well as executive powers over sanctions and trade. What he has actually lost is political room to manoeuvre as Democrats in the Congress can now investigate, obstruct funding and impose greater scrutiny on his decisions. Compounding that would be the fact that some key Republicans, mindful of their own electoral prospects in 2028, may become less willing to defend his policies that come with a political cost. The resulting situation could constrain the president over time, but it would not necessarily make him more cautious in the immediate term. Iran Iran will be the immediate test of how Trump responds to the Republican rout. The electoral setback has created a paradox for the president because while the war is the key reason for the debacle, many think he may still be tempted to intensify military pressure in the hope of securing a decisive outcome before the political space for doing so narrows…

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