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Goldman’s cut adds weight to the view that rates, not geopolitics, are setting gold’s direction for now. With December Fed hike odds near 80%, that keeps a lid on near-term rallies. The bank’s warning that higher oil prices could trigger systematic selling fits the way gold has traded through the Iran war: escalation lifts crude and yields, which weighs on bullion. Weekend strikes in Iraq and Saudi Arabia raise that risk this week. The heavy central bank bid underpins the longer-term case and is likely to cushion deeper dips. A shift toward Fed easing in late 2027 is the bank’s main upside catalyst. --- Earlier: Gold ticks higher on softer oil, but Fed’s 80% December hike odds cap gain --- Goldman has lowered its gold targets as Fed hikes erode hedging demand, but it is betting that relentless central bank buying will still carry bullion higher by the end of 2027. Summary: Goldman cut its end-2026 gold target to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650, and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400. The bank cites a hawkish Fed, including an expected December hike, curbing demand for gold as a policy hedge. Central banks are expected to buy around 60 tonnes a month in 2026 and 2027. Current buying is estimated at around 85 tonnes. Central bank demand drives most of the roughly 15% upside Goldman forecasts by end-2027. A more hawkish Fed path could leave gold near $4,660 by end-2027, while fiscal worries could push it above the base case. Fed rate cuts, expected from late 2027, are seen as a further source of support. Goldman Sachs has cut its gold price forecasts, lowering its end-2026 target to $4,150 an ounce from $4,650 and its end-2027 target to $4,800 from $5,400, as an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve weighs on investor demand for the metal. The bank’s strategists, in a note dated November 5, said the revisions assume the Fed’s tighter stance, including an expected rate hike in December, will limit demand for gold as a hedge against currency debasement and wider…

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