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Crude oil broke below the lower bound of the channel yesterday and extended the selloff after the US Vice President Vance blamed the war with Iran for the Republicans’ heavy losses in the midterm elections. The selloff started right when he published the post on X , as it reinforced market expectations that the Trump administration could seek an off-ramp from the war rather than escalate military operations. Keep in mind, though, that Trump can legally continue military operations against Iran even if Democrats control both the House and the Senate. So, it’s not that simple to force Trump out of the war now that he has nothing to lose. But for now, this seems the scenario the market is betting on. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran negotiations. A breakthrough would increase the bearish momentum significantly and take oil prices back to pre-war levels relatively quickly. An escalation, on the other hand, could trigger another rally on a rising risk premium, although there’s also a chance that it could be short-lived if Trump launches limited strikes just to save face before exiting the war. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME On the daily chart, we can see that crude oil (CFD contract) broke below the channel yesterday and extended the losses into the 87.00 handle before pausing. We can expect the buyers to step in around these levels, with a defined risk below the 87.00 handle, to position for a rally into the 110.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 68.00 support next, with the 80.00 handle as the first target. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME On the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get a pullback, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the…

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