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For oil, this is the more important signal of the weekend. Trump made avoiding renewed strikes conditional on progress in talks , and his Secretary of State now says there isn’t any. That pushes escalation risk back toward the front of the market’s mind and argues for a firmer war-risk premium in crude. Combined with the suspected Iranian strike on Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field , the de-escalation story from Trump’s CNN interview looks shakier. Traders are likely to be more cautious about selling crude on hopes of a deal. Any fresh threat to US forces or to Hormuz shipping would test Rubio’s pledge to respond. Trump set progress in talks as the condition for holding off on new strikes, and his top diplomat is now saying that condition isn’t being met, a shift that puts escalation risk firmly back in the frame. Summary: Rubio said negotiations with Iran are not productive because Tehran’s demands are simply unacceptable. He said a diplomatic solution is sometimes not possible, though the US will keep exploring whether one exists. The US is taking defensive action and will respond if its forces in the region are threatened. Rubio stressed long-standing cross-party agreement that a nuclear-armed Iran would be completely unacceptable. The tone contrasts with Trump’s weekend comments that renewed strikes were highly unlikely if talks progressed. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said negotiations with Iran are not productive because Tehran’s demands are simply unacceptable. It is a noticeably harder tone than President Donald Trump took shortly before, and it raises fresh doubts over the prospects for a deal to end the war. Rubio said a diplomatic solution is sometimes not possible, although Washington would continue to explore whether a chance for one exists. He added that the US is taking defensive action and will respond if its forces in the region are threatened. He also stressed long-standing agreement across both major US political parties that Iran acquiring…

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