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For oil, Trump’s comments trim the risk that the US resumes strikes, which could take some of the war-risk premium out of crude. Physical supply risk hasn’t changed, though: Hormuz remains contested and tankers are still being attacked, so any relief is likely to be limited until talks produce something concrete. The tail risk also cuts both ways. With three carriers in place and targets already identified, a breakdown in talks could quickly put escalation back in the price. Any easing in crude would also take a little pressure off the inflation argument behind Fed hike expectations, but that depends on the talks actually moving. --- Unrelated, but the big news for tech heading into this new week: Three risks for Nvidia shares after Huang admits affair with suspected Chinese spy --- Trump is signalling that he would rather settle than strike, but with carriers in position, sanctions tightening and Hormuz still contested, the burden is on Tehran to deliver progress before the military option comes back into play. Summary: Trump said renewed US military action against Iran is “highly unlikely” as long as talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz make progress. He said three US aircraft carriers are in the region and that infrastructure targets, including power plants and bridges, have been identified, though he would prefer not to hit them. Trump claimed Iran’s air defences are destroyed and that it retains only about 10% of its missile capacity and 15% of its drone capability. The war is in an eight-month stalemate, with Iranian attacks on tankers in Hormuz and little visible diplomatic progress. Washington is adding pressure: a reward of up to $20 million for nuclear programme information and a task force to block land transfers of weapons. Diplomatic contacts have increased since the US midterms, including a Trump call with Qatar’s emir on de-escalation. US President Donald Trump has said it is “highly unlikely” he will need to order…

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